Technical Analysis by Brad Gareiss: Swing Technicals- AUD/USD to Resume Downtrend at 1.0660?

June 20, 2011

CURRENCY	CURRENT BIAS	POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term)		Watch for a pattern that would allow us to go short off of the bearish trend line.
GBP/USD (Medium Term)		Watch for potential bearish pattern that would enter near the bearish trend line.
USD/JPY (Medium Term)		Sell USD/JPY at 81.33. Stop at 81.60. Profit target at 80.92.
USD/CHF (Medium Term)		If the wedge breakout leads to a short term rally, watch for an opportunity to go short off of the longer term bearish trend line.
USD/CAD (Medium Term)		Buy USD/CAD at 0.9728. Stop at 0.9702. Profit target at 0.9768.
AUD/USD (Medium Term)		Sell AUD/USD at 1.0660. Stop at 1.0695. Profit target at 1.0607.
NZD/USD (Medium Term)		Watch for a new pattern to emerge.

EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Watch for a pattern that would allow us to go short off of the bearish trend line.
What is the trend? Neutral What is this pattern? No pattern present - See all chart patterns Why is this significant? There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade. What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? No trade.
Reason for Strategy
The EUR/USD is currently testing the bearish trend line on the 4hr Chart.  Unfortunately, there was no pattern that allowed us to go short at this test.  However, this is still a critical test that will determine if the trend line will remain the primary formation we are focusing on.  If the trend line provides resistance again, we will watch for a new pattern that would give us a chance to go short at an increasingly strong trend line.  If the trend line breaks, then we will have to start from scratch.
Trade Invalidation
No trade.
Support & Resistance Levels Resistance 3 1.4732 78.6% of AB on the Daily Chart Resistance 2 1.4569 61.8% of AB on the Daily Chart Resistance 1 Bearish trend line See 4hr Chart Current Price 1.4305 Support 1 1.4150 38.2% of XA on the Daily Chart Support 2 1.3906 50% of XA on the Daily Chart Support 3 1.3663 61.8% of XA on the Daily Chart
Daily Chart - Will 38.2% of XA push the pair back up to the bearish trend line?	4hr Chart - We are now watching for patterns to allow us to go short at the bearish trend line.
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